The end is nigh...

Napoleon once said “...never interrupt your enemy when he’s in the middle of making a mistake” and I’m certain that this message was relayed to SNP campaign offices across the Country. In truth, Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has not had much to do in terms of gaining the initiative. He has looked measured, assured and confident throughout this campaign.

This is in stark contrast to the display of prospective First Minister Iain Gray whose campaign will be terminally associated with seeking refuge in a Subway store, in full view of the TV cameras. Perhaps the defining moment in an otherwise lacklustre campaign, together with poor performances in the TV debates. Tonight’s STV poll showing an SNP lead of 18% in the constituency vote will have a few Labour MSPs sweating this evening.

However, having cast a critical eye over the campaigns of all parties I’d make the following observations. In terms of credibility, both the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives come out (irrespective of the end result) with their reputations enhanced. The SNP have produced a solid, efficient and effective campaign and have managed to portray their message as one of hope, positivity and vision. Admittedly, they’ve not been held to a great deal of scrutiny, however it is now increasingly likely they will be rewarded with a second mandate to govern.

The Conservatives, ably led by the affable Annabel Goldie, have gained respect for their unapologetic message that certain policies in Scotland are unsustainable – most notably the issue of Higher Education funding. There is an admirable honesty in giving the electorate a message they may not want to hear. Whilst this is unlikely to be rewarded to any great extent this election, the Conservatives have at least re-positioned themselves as a credible political movement in Scotland.

Moving onto the Lib Dems – led by the amiable, relatively articulate, but somewhat ineffective Tavish Scott. Mr Scott’s message to the country has been that his Scottish Lib Dems are a different entity to the National Lib Dems and that he would safeguard certain policies, such as the now infamous pledge not to increase tuition fees. Unfortunately, this is a message likely to fall on deaf ears. Too long were the Liberal Democrats able to pontificate from the sidelines and make pledges on which they were never likely to be held to account. The Scottish Lib Dems are irrevocably associated with the toxic brand of the Clegg deceit on the one fundamental issue which gained them support in previous elections. The electorate will simply look at the protestations of the Scottish Lib Dem leader and disregard them. Once bitten, twice shy.

This leads onto the “doorstep campaign” being waged by thousands of labour activists the length and breadth of Britain. The commitment of these voluntary foot soldiers is deserving of great credit. However, the comrades have been badly let down throughout this campaign by their leadership.

They were not helped by the aforementioned subway incident; they were not helped by the Andy Kerr performance on Newsnight in which he single handedly demolished the party’s mandatory sentencing for knife carrying policy; and, most importantly, they were not helped by an appalling, unapologetically negative campaign based on a re-run of the 2010 General Election and the subsequent relaunch of the unsuccessful 2007 campaign. To use a Geoffrey Howeism – it is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease, only for them to find, as the first balls are being bowled, that the team captain is back in the shop as he bought the wrong kind of bat in the first place!

This election will be, if polls are correct, a bitter pill for the Scottish Labour Party to swallow and I make no apologies for saying this. Too long have they been open to the accusation that they take the Scottish electorate for granted. This will be denied, but what other conclusions can be drawn from a campaign based on demonising the UK Government in a Scottish Parliamentary Election?

What other conclusions can be drawn from a party which sends its brightest and best to Westminster? With no disrespect intended, whilst one can easily envisage a UK Cabinet consisting of Alex Salmond, I have great difficulty envisaging likewise of anyone on the current Scottish Labour front bench. Moreover, one must ask why Cathy Jamieson saw fit to swap the front benches of the Scottish Parliament for the backbenches of Westminster?

Every party will have something to learn from these elections, but it is often the party with most to lose that has most to learn. A loss for Scottish Labour this week should precipitate a clear out throughout the Scottish Parliamentary Party. There are too many Labour MSPs who have been sitting on safe seats for too long, offering very little in return for their generous parliamentary salary. Come the next election, there will be more than enough Labour MSPS who will have been in their seats for 17 years and undoubtedly seeking a further 4 year term. That would be unacceptable.

Post election, the Labour Party should embrace the now seemingly forgotten issue of local primaries in every Constituency in Scotland – whether or not that seat has a sitting Labour MSP. In fact,  especially if it does!The whole electorate should be given the opportunity to vote – not just the small group of labour party members – and candidates should be encouraged from all sections of society. If sitting MSPs are strong enough to retain their seats then they will do so, otherwise – they will not.

For the sake of the Labour Party in Scotland, the days of incumbent MSPs (and MPs) sitting in safe seats until they stand down or lose a selection vote should be numbered.  Every party should be open to bringing in new, fresh people with ideas relevant to the modern day campaign. Otherwise there will be stagnation, loss of political relevance and perennial election defeats. As long as Scottish Labour continue to fight the battles of the past and wage negative campaign warfare on an electorate looking for vision and ideas – the longer it will remain in opposition.