Welcome to my inaugural blog post.
I aim to use this blog to muse on areas of importance to me; including politics, law, football and the odd piece of random information thrown therein. I hope you enjoy my posts and that you will become a frequent visitor. The purpose of this post is not merely an introduction to myself and my blog, but also a small (mischievous) commentary on the Scottish political scene as I see things emerging, following the Scottish Parliamentary Elections in May.
As a brief aside, I aim to use this blog as objectively and as free of party political bias as I possibly can. This is because, due to a hectic work schedule and hope of studying for the LLb from September, any political activism will (in the immediate short to medium term) take a back seat as I set off on a new direction in life. As the name may suggest, it is my intention to utilise this blog as a means of diarising my progress through the part time law degree at the University of Strathclyde – which is, in 6 months time, set to eviscerate my free time and obliterate my budget.
However, as I imagine similar to all political geeks, one of the main passions in my life manifests itself at times of national elections. In Scotland, we are set to elect the 129 parliamentarians who will control the Scottish budget, set the domestic legislative agenda and blame Westminster for everything that goes wrong – including things of their own doing! This will be the 4th Scottish Parliamentary Election, with the SNP the incumbent minority government.
With my holiday booked for the day after the election (yes, I am that sad!) I am now looking forward to a hard fought campaign. That said, it is my supposition that the real action will begin when the results have been announced and, for the fourth time, no party is in a position to form a majority administration. For those not familiar with Scottish politics, the Nationalists currently form a minority government under the Leadership of Alex Salmond. Polls, up until recently, have suggested that Labour held a commanding lead in the polls and were set to become the largest party. Not anymore.
An opinion poll for the Scotland Debates programme on Scottish Television last night found that 37% favoured the current First Minister as the man to retain the job; Annabel Goldie (Con) came second with 9% (technically ‘undecided’ and ‘none of the above’ came 2nd and 3rd respectively); Iain Gray (Lab) with 7% and Tavish Scott (Lib Dem) on 2%. Further Opinion Polls show that Labour and the SNP are effectively neck and neck.
This got me thinking. It is quite possible that, on May 7th, the Labour Party are returned as the largest party but quite some distance short of an overall majority. The SNP may be a handful of seats short of Labour. Now don’t turn off when I divulge my next thoughts, for I feel they are worthy of some consideration and, in a land in which the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can sit relatively comfortably in Government, anything is possible in terms of the dark art of coalition.
This will undoubtedly be anathema to activists of both parties, but sometime in May, I envisage the announcement of an SNP led administration, propped up by their friends and allies – the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, led by Annabel Goldie.
Still here? I’m aware there will be those of a Nationalist persuasion who would sooner direct their vital organs in the direction of an active blender, than give this any serious consideration. For the record, I’m equally sure of Tory activists who’d happily plug it in. However there are dual benefits and if you give this scenario a bit of thought then it isn’t that unlikely – particularly if Labour are returned as the largest party!
The Nationalists want to stay in power and they want a referendum on the Constitution which includes the option of Independence. It’s a referendum I believe they’re likely to lose. If such a demand were to be made by the SNP on condition of forming a coalition, it is one the Conservatives could accede to, not only on the basis of the AV referendum currently taking place in the UK, but also for an overarching, multi option referendum – with independence and further powers on the ballot paper. The Nationalists get their elusive referendum, the Tories get into power whilst securing a referendum on their policy of additional powers for the parliament. Oh, and they both keep Labour out of power.
The Conservatives would, in my seemingly implausible scenario, find themselves in a position that was thought impossible on the formation of this parliament – back in government. Albeit this would be as the junior partner in a coalition, but it would afford them the opportunity to prove their worth to the people of Scotland.
The Scottish Conservatives do not, in my opinion, currently enjoy the support of Scottish Conservative electors. I am not convinced the number of Tories in Scotland amounts to 15% of the electorate (latest poll rating) and they’ve languished in political obscurity since their wipe out in 1997.
If such a Government progressed on traditionally strong conservative themes such as law and order, together with competent ministers such as Annabel Goldie, then the seeds of a Tory recovery may emerge. Align that to a potentially wounded SNP on the loss of a referendum and there is a means to foresee a realignment of Scottish voting intentions in the future – particularly given the additional exposure Scottish Tory ministers would have.
So, 2011 is fine and as I say I’m looking forward to the election campaign and the results. However, beyond that has the potential to change the Scottish political dynamic irreversibly from 2015. If, between 2011 and 2015 the Scottish Constitutional question is settled in the form of a no vote to independence – then the SNP would be discredited as a viable political alternative in Scotland and the matter would be settled for a generation or more, allowing the Scottish Tories an avenue back into the electoral mainstream.
Then again, the people might vote yes – which just does away with the SNP!
